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A small group of insurgents attempted a coup Dec. 30 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, but state security forces have quelled the violence, dispelling the possibility that the rebellion will bring further instability to the central African country. The coup appears to have been orchestrated by Paul Joseph Mukungubila, who ran for president in 2006.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo is no stranger to coups, but previous attempts succeeded because they were more popular and more orderly, involving factions of the country's military or larger rebel militias. Mukungubila's attempt failed because it had little popular support and because the military still largely supports Congolese President Joseph Kabila.
Gunfire was heard in Kinshasa as early as 9 a.m. Armed men took control of the National Congolese Radio and Television headquarters with the intent of using the broadcast equipment, while separate groups opened fire at the N'Djili International Airport and at Camp Tshatshi, one of the two main military bases located in the city. The attackers at the television headquarters also took several hostages, but security forces shut down communications at the station before the rebels could finish broadcasting their message.
The rebellion consisted of only about 70 individuals, roughly 30 of whom were deployed to the television station. The remaining 40 were dispatched evenly to N'Djili and Camp Tshatshi. The Congolese military claimed to have killed as many as 40 rebels as it reclaimed all three locations. Shortly after the announcement, several firefights reportedly took place in the neighborhoods near Camp Tshatshi, but these skirmishes never posed a real threat to the military's control of the city.
Limited Support
Just before security forces shut down transmissions from the television station, the rebels released a communique saying that "Gideon Mukungubila has come to liberate you from the Rwandan slavery," a reference to the influence of neighboring Rwanda that brought Joseph Kabila's father, former President Laurent Desire Kabila, to power in 1997. Notably, the current president is not as close to Rwanda as his father was.
Though Mukungubila has run for president in the past, criticizing the Kabila regime, he is a marginal political figure, as evidenced by his poor performance in the 2006 presidential elections, in which he won only 0.35 percent of the popular vote. Moreover, Mukungubila's previous behavior has made it difficult for him to move into the mainstream; he has claimed to be a prophet and once declared himself king of Africa.
While Mukungubila has some limited support -- his followers have clashed with security forces several times in past protests -- clearly it is not enough to sustain a successful coup against Kabila. What sets him and his followers apart from other rebels are their unrealistic ambitions and delusions of grandeur. In fact, these are probably what motivated them to attempt a coup that was probably doomed to fail at its inception.
Currently, Mukungubila's whereabouts are unknown. Although gunfire has been reported near his residence in Lubumbashi, there has been no confirmation of his presence there. While Kinshasa has seen several coups throughout its history, the extremely limited support base of Mukungubila means his rebellion is likely an anomaly rather than a political trend.
As such, it will probably not lead to lingering tensions in the country as security forces stamp out the remnants of the uprising. That is not to say some clashes will not break out from time to time; already some fights have been reported in Lubumbashi. But such tensions will not create a strategic threat to the government in Kinshasa.
Courtesy : Stratfor (www.stratfor.com)